Is the stock market ever going to recover?

[invest]

Is the stock market ever going to recover? I already lost 50% of my retirement and I know that the stock market is a long term investment but I am afraid it will never recover and it can even go way down from here.

[Jason]

The stock market will recover eventually, but the question is how long it will take?

[Canadian]

I think that broad stock markets will recover maybe 15-20% from here, before resuming their fall, which will ultimately bring them lower from where they are today.

[bullish]

I think that broad stock markets will recover maybe 15-20% from here, before resuming their fall, which will ultimately bring them lower from where they are today.

Why do you think there will be additional fall from here. I think the markets are way oversold and will bounce back strongly very soon. I think we saw the bear market lows in October 2008.

[trent]

There might be a bear rally here, but this won't change the general direction of the markets, which is down. Decades of accumulated credit excesses cannot be wiped out for a year, and the ultimate markets bottom will be much lower even if we have the odd rally here and there.

[bronto18]

I read somewhere that the financial crises occur roughly every seven years. It is just a cycle that will pass eventually. After a couple of years the stock market will recover.

[bullish]

Of course it will recover, and at that time many people would have missed a great buying opportunity. I for one won't be one of them.

[Canadian]

It may take several years for the market to go up to last October levels, however this won't account for inflation, and for all purchase power that your invested funds has lost. Dow can be around 14K 5 years from now, but if the dollar has fallen twice in value, then investors will be losers again. Also there is no guarantee that the market will recover that soon, and Japan is an example of that.

[bronto18]

Of course it will recover, and at that time many people would have missed a great buying opportunity. I for one won't be one of them.

How can be so sure? What are you investing in?

[Jason]

I'm not that optimistic anymore as bullish is. My portfolio is down significantly, and now I think twice before investing my hard-earned cash.

[trent]

With the new US president the markets might rally for a month or two, but after that the downward pressure will resume. This rally will be one of the last opportunities to get out of the general stock markets and minimize losses in my opinion.

[Steven]

I think that 2009 will be better for stock markets in general, as it looks like the credit crisis is abating. The markets may be in for some more pain, but after that they'll rise.

[bullish]

I'm not that optimistic anymore as bullish is. My portfolio is down significantly, and now I think twice before investing my hard-earned cash.

The time to invest is when everybody is despaired and the news is all gloom and doom.

[Rickson9]

The time to invest is when everybody is despaired and the news is all gloom and doom.

I strongly agree. I haven't bought in awhile since the spring, but crashes are really really good times to deploy capital.

[FinancialGuy]

I strongly agree. I haven't bought in awhile since the spring, but crashes are really really good times to deploy capital.

Yeah but where have you been the last six months???
Did you buy in the spring and have you enjoyed the ride until now?

[Rickson9]

Yeah but where have you been the last six months???
Did you buy in the spring and have you enjoyed the ride until now?

Correct. The last 6 months have been spent watching the prices rise on all our accounts. TFSA up 39.0% YTD, RRSP up 20.6% YTD and non-registered accounts up 27.1% YTD. Although satisfying, our returns pale in comparison to the market in 2009:
NASDAQ +30.0%
S&P/TSX +28.7%
S&P500 +17.5%
DOW +11.1%