Does Canada have a housing bubble?

[Canadian]

Does Canada have a housing bubble? I would like to start a discussion and hear your opinions on this.

My opinion is that we have a big fat housing bubble, which is due to pop any moment now. Share yours and don't forget to vote.

[trent]

It sure does! Last year I was expecting about 30% correction in the TO market (from top to bottom), however with the current insane market I won't be surprised to see 40-50% down from the top (assuming the price will creep a little higher from here).

[Tightwod]

Bubble?? Overpriced, yes.

When incomes go up more than inflation and interest rates are at historic lows it creates demand. When rates increase affordability goes down, when income decreases affordability goes down. It is inevitable to me that rates will go up. demand will go down and house prices will come down.

What I can't figure out is how anyone new to the housing market can afford a home at these prices, let alone in Vancouver & Toronto etc.

I blame the baby boomers for all our inflated prices. As these guys age (even more than they are now, ha ha) they will exit the larger family dwellings they are in now and move to smaller bungalows, retirment buildings condos and rural towns or cottages. I think in the future 10-15 years you will see a large drop in value of mid sized family homes.

It sucks but but really this generation dictates the economy! They are the consumers of today!

The bigger question is, what do we do about it?? You have to live somewhere. So for those that have more equity in their homes, they should sell and do what?? Rent, buy a smaller place so that when it does go down you won't lose as much $?

Maybe..... I need to start developing some really nice retirement communities?? Who's with me?

[Rickson9]

I think people have been predicting a RE bubble pop for the last half decade now...

Sorta reminds me of the oldschool gold bugs telling everybody that gold will be $2000 per ounce (inflation adjusted)... Hey look! It's almost half way there! 25 years later...

[trent]

I think people have been predicting a RE bubble pop for the last half decade now...

Sorta reminds me of the oldschool gold bugs telling everybody that gold will be $2000 per ounce (inflation adjusted)... Hey look! It's almost half way there! 25 years later...

Yes, but look what gold did since 2001 and compare it to the dismal performance of Dow and S&P. As for the Canadian housing bubble it will pop sooner or later, and those patient enough will be rewarded, while the ones jumping in now will live to regret their decision.

[Steven]

The only Canadian city that has real estate bubble is Vancouver, the rest (even the big cities) seem fairly priced to me.

[Jason]

Yep, a humongous bubble ready to deflate and crush hundreds of thousands overleveraged borrowers. Watch out!

[Canadian]

I think people have been predicting a RE bubble pop for the last half decade now...

Sorta reminds me of the oldschool gold bugs telling everybody that gold will be $2000 per ounce (inflation adjusted)... Hey look! It's almost half way there! 25 years later...

So, you think the bubble won't pop, is that what you are saying? Gold may easily go to $2,000 when the stock markets dive again, and governments start to bail out everybody in sight.

[bullish]

I don't know about you but my house has appreciated 65% in the last 5 years, and you just whine that the market is overpriced, because you missed the train. However if you think that the market in Toronto is overpriced look what similar properties cost in London, Paris, Rome and New York, and you will see that GTA houses are bargain compared to those cities.

[Rickson9]

So, you think the bubble won't pop, is that what you are saying?

No. I said that, 'I think people have been predicting a RE bubble pop for the last half decade now...'

Gold may easily go to $2,000 when the stock markets dive again, and governments start to bail out everybody in sight.

I don't think the price of gold is correlated with the stock market, but I'm no expert.
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/fop/embedflv/swf/fop_wrapper.swf?id=15470881&autoStart=0&prepanelEnable=1&infopanelEnable=1&carouselEnable=0

[Canadian]

No. I said that, 'I think people have been predicting a RE bubble pop for the last half decade now...'


So tell me where do you think the Canadian RE is going then?

[Rickson9]

So tell me where do you think the Canadian RE is going then?

I don't know. Nobody knows.

"It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future." - Yogi Berra

[trent]

I don't know. Nobody knows.

"It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future." - Yogi Berra

In order to put or not to put money in any market (stock, real estate, etc.) you need to have an opinion, so unless you are fine sitting on cash, you better get one :).

[Rickson9]

In order to put or not to put money in any market (stock, real estate, etc.) you need to have an opinion, so unless you are fine sitting on cash, you better get one :).

There is no benefit for me to have an opinion on the direction of an entire market nor do I need one to allocate capital.

[trent]

There is no benefit for me to have an opinion on the direction of an entire market nor do I need one to allocate capital.

Really? So if the market takes dive of 40% in the next 2 months , you will be spared because you are a great stock picker?

[Rickson9]

Really? So if the market takes dive of 40% in the next 2 months , you will be spared because you are a great stock picker?

Let me know when you can predict a 40% dive in the next 2 months (or any time for that matter). I would pay good money for that to happen.

"If a stock goes down 50%, I'd look forward to it. In fact, I would offer you a significant sum of money if you could give me the opportunity for all of my stocks to go down 50% over the next month."
-Warren Buffett, 2008 Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting

Going back to the original point:
"There is no benefit for me to have an opinion on the direction of an entire market nor do I need one to allocate capital."

[trent]

Let me know when you can predict a 40% dive in the next 2 months (or any time for that matter). I would pay good money for that to happen.

"If a stock goes down 50%, I'd look forward to it. In fact, I would offer you a significant sum of money if you could give me the opportunity for all of my stocks to go down 50% over the next month."
-Warren Buffett, 2008 Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting

Going back to the original point:
"There is no benefit for me to have an opinion on the direction of an entire market nor do I need one to allocate capital."

You still haven't answered my question :)

[Rickson9]

Really? So if the market takes dive of 40% in the next 2 months , you will be spared because you are a great stock picker?

Going to your digression, the answer would be yes.

I pray for that outcome every day.