Bank runs in Canada?

[Zephyr]

Do you think there will be bank runs in Canada? I know that we have 5-6 major banks, it is nothing like US, but still do you think the banks are in financial trouble?

[trent]

I think bank runs in Canada are quite possible, taking into account the fact that the Canadian real estate just started declining and what effect will this have on the Canadian banks holding mortgages rapidly deteorating in value.

[Canadian]

I hope that there won't be any bank runs here in Canada. This sounds really scary.

[bullish]

Oh please, enough with the drama! The Canadian banking system, was just rated the safest in the world and all you do is worrying and complaining. Get a grip!

[trent]

The Canadian financial system might appear safe on the surface, but this is simply because the Canadian housing downturn just started. As the down pressure on housing prices accelerates, there will be more foreclosures (think Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal) and even lower prices. Banks will lose lots of money on all these foreclosures and bad loans and they will have to be bailed out as already happened in US and Europe.

[Steven]

Even if we have bank runs here in Canada (I don't think it's likely) the government will move in, and rescue the problematic bank(s). The most likely solution if this happens will be to guarantee all deposits.

[bullish]

The Canadian financial system might appear safe on the surface, but this is simply because the Canadian housing downturn just started. As the down pressure on housing prices accelerates, there will be more foreclosures (think Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal) and even lower prices. Banks will lose lots of money on all these foreclosures and bad loans and they will have to be bailed out as already happened in US and Europe.

Yes, but you assume that the housing will go down, which I don't think will be the case.

[trent]

Yes, but you assume that the housing will go down, which I don't think will be the case.

You must be living in a cave my friend! Haven't you heard that the number of houses sold through the Canadian MLS plunged 14 per cent in October and that this was the worst month-to-month decline since June 1994? Another interesting fact for you - Toronto, accounted for one-third of this national decline.

The Canadian national sales were down 27 per cent from October 2007, while the average MLS home sale price was $281K, which is down 9.9 per cent from October 2007.

If you need more facts about the crashing real estate market in Canada, please let me know.

[BankAdmin]

Yes, but you assume that the housing will go down, which I don't think will be the case.

It's not assumption anymore, it's a fact. You can check this thread I posted about the free fall the Toronto real estate market is in:

It's not assumption anymore, it's a fact. You can check this thread I posted about the free fall the Toronto real extate market is in:

http://forums.canadabanks.net/showthread.php?p=470

[bullish]

I think the Toronto housing market has found a bottom and we'll go up from here. The year over year decline for November, was much smaller than the October one, and in December we might not have decline at all.

[Steven]

I think the Toronto housing market has found a bottom and we'll go up from here. The year over year decline for November, was much smaller than the October one, and in December we might not have decline at all.

I hope you are right, but I still think that there is more downside in the Toronto real estate market.

[Lumber Joe]

Bank runs do not happen everyday. They happen, when there is panic.

[trent]

Bank runs do not happen everyday. They happen, when there is panic.

Maybe the next leg down in the stock markets will bring some real panic :).

[trent]

Canadian banks look healthy simply because our real estate hasn't corrected...yet.

[Rickson9]

There won't be a run on the banks because they have all their questionable mortgages insured by the CMHC aka the government aka the tax payer.

[trent]

There won't be a run on the banks because they have all their questionable mortgages insured by the CMHC aka the government aka the tax payer.

To have a bank run you just need 3-4% of all depositors convinced that their bank is in serious trouble. If those people withdraw their money in a short period of time the government will have to step in and save the bank, otherwise the fractional-reserve banking system is over.