Toronto's housing market crashing hard

[Canadian]

The Toronto's housing bubble is deflating, and now even the most stubborn homeowners cannot deny that. The October 2008 sales are down 38% compared to October 2007 and the prices are down 13% for the same period. GTA fared a little better but not much.

How much more decline do you think we'll see before we reach the bottom? My guess is anywhere between 30%-50% from current prices.

[trent]

Most homeowners still live in fantasyland and think that their homes are worth much more than somebody is actually willing to pay for them. What happens when the majority of the homeowner herd comes to realize that their homes have lost a large percentage of the paper value they once had?

I've just posted a new thread about homeowners living in denial, refusing to accept that their houses have lost lots of value in the current housing downturn. I personally have a friend like that, who insists that he's house is special, the area he bought in is special and the values can't go down there. This is sad and funny at the same time, sad because many homeowners will have to come to terms with reality and admit that their precious houses lost them a lot of money, and at the same time is funny because it shows how vein some/most people are (I'm unique, my house is unique, everything I touch is unique, etc.).

As for the Toronto crash, you are right on. I think that we can easily see another 40% down from here. At that point I'll be a buyer, meanwhile I'll patiently hear everybody's rants about the uniqueness of their houses .

[bullish]

This is just a temporary blip, and real estate in Toronto will start rising within a few months. People are just scared now from what is happening in US, and are just holding off large purchases, but this will be over by Spring time.

[trent]

Originally Posted by bullish

This is just a temporary blip, and real estate in Toronto will start rising within a few months. People are just scared now from what is happening in US, and are just holding off large purchases, but this will be over by Spring time.

By springtime the house prices in Toronto will be down at least another 20% from here. There is nothing to support current inflated home prices - wages are stagnant at best after accounting for inflation, unemployment will only rise from here, the Canadian economy is entering serious recession, and don't forget how unaffordable houses have become.

[bullish]

Originally Posted by trent

By springtime the house prices in Toronto will be down at least another 20% from here. There is nothing to support current inflated home prices - wages are stagnant at best after accounting for inflation, unemployment will only rise from here, the Canadian economy is entering serious recession, and don't forget how unaffordable houses have become.

As I already said in another thread housing in Toronto going down from here is nothing short of wishful thinking. Keep dreaming

[Canadian]

Originally Posted by bullish

As I already said in another thread housing in Toronto going down from here is nothing short of wishful thinking. Keep dreaming

Just wait until tomorrow when TREB will release the Toronto sales numbers for the first half of November. I'm sure the prices will be at least 15% down compared to November 2007

[Steven]

I don't think it's pssible to go down by 50% from here. Toronto is the biggest Canadian city with a strong industrial base, and is also the countries top financial center. maybe 10-15% but that's it.

[trent]

Of course it's possible to go down 50% in price from here. If it's possible to double the house price in Toronto for less than 10 years, then it's possible to slash them in half for a few years as well.

I wonder why the TREB isn't releasing the first half of November Toronto sales report. I guess they are out of excuses already and have a hard time spinning dismal sales and huge price drops in a positive light .

[sunshine]

It is bad but not that bad comparing to US. The market will pick up next summer probably. With this big financial crisis and all, it is normal people to stop buying houses, cars and big ticket items.

[Steven]

I think the real estate in Toronto will come down a little from here and stay mostly flat during 2009.